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Article Dans Une Revue Applied Energy Année : 2009

Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

Bertrand Vignal
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Résumé

In this article, we investigate conditional mean and variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. We are particularly interested in calculating the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to electricity prices and test spot prices forecasts until one month ahead forecast. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria.
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Dates et versions

halshs-00307606 , version 1 (15-04-2009)
halshs-00307606 , version 2 (26-11-2009)

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Abdou Kâ Diongue, Dominique Guegan, Bertrand Vignal. Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process. Applied Energy, 2009, 86 (4), pp.505-510. ⟨10.1016/j.apenergy.2008.07.005⟩. ⟨halshs-00307606v2⟩
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