Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach

Franz Dietrich (1, 2, 3) , Christian List (4)

1 PSE - Paris School of Economics
2 CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
3 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
4 LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science

How can several individuals' probability functions on a given-algebra of events be aggregated into a collective probability function? Classic approaches to this problem usually require 'event-wise independence': the collective probability for each event should depend only on the individuals' probabilities for that event. In practice, however, some events may be 'basic' and others 'derivative', so that it makes sense first to aggregate the probabilities for the former and then to let these constrain the probabilities for the latter. We formalize this idea by introducing a 'premise-based' approach to probabilistic opinion pooling, and show that, under a variety of assumptions, it leads to linear or neutral opinion pooling on the 'premises'.

Mots clés: Probabilistic opinion pooling; judgment aggregation; subjective probability; premise-based aggregation

Domaines: Economies et finances; Philosophie

Franz Dietrich, Christian List. Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach. Social Choice and Welfare, 2017, 48 (4), pp.787-814. ⟨halshs-01485767⟩