The contribution of technological diffusion to climate change mitigation: a network-based approach
Résumé
We propose a novel approach to quantify the contribution of technological diffusion to climate change mitigation. First, we use a parametric model of epidemic diffusion to estimate from micro-level data the determinants and the structure of the networks of diffusion for three key mitigation technologies: electro-mobility, renewable energy and agriculture. We then simulate the propagation of new technological vintages on these networks and quantify the reduction of emissions induced by the diffusion process using a tailored feedback centrality measure labelled “emission centrality”. Finally, we investigate how new forms of international collaboration such as climate clubs can contribute to mitigation by catalysing the adoption of new technologies. Our approach can be used directly to measure the contribution of technological diffusion to mitigation or indirectly by providing estimates of global technological diffusion to integrated assessment models.