Diplomatic intervention in civil war: trade for all or trade for one ?

Intervention diplomatique dans une guerre civile : le commerce pour tous ou le commerce pour un seul ?

Mathieu Couttenier (1) , Raphael Soubeyran (2)

1 UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
2 LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée

This paper looks at whether diplomatic intervention in civil war has affected trade over the post World War II period. We show that the intervener derives no commercial advantage from diplomatic intervention ; trade between the intervener and the target country does not increase more than trade between the target country and its other partners. However, we find that diplomatic intervention has a positive and persistent effect on trade between the target country and all its partners.

Mots clés: civil war; trade; gravity equation; diplomatie

Mots clés: foreign influence; politique d'intervention

Domaines: Sciences de l'Homme et Société

Mathieu Couttenier, Raphael Soubeyran. Diplomatic intervention in civil war: trade for all or trade for one ?. 2011. ⟨hal-02806038⟩