Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point

Marcello Basili (1) , Alain Chateauneuf (2, 3, 4)

1 DEPS - Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica
2 IPAG Business School
3 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
4 PSE - Paris School of Economics

This paper considers the issue of aggregation of experts' opinions expressed through not necessarily independent and even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors. The paper addresses the elicitation of the consensus distribution by introducing the Steiner point of the set of all common distributions among experts and derives its conditional probabilities on future events.

Keywords: Epsilon contamination capacities; Steiner point; Full Bayesian updating; Multiple priors; Capacities; Consensus distribution

Domains: Humanities and Social Sciences; Economics and Finance

Marcello Basili, Alain Chateauneuf. Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2020, 123, pp.17-25. ⟨10.1016/j.ijar.2020.04.005⟩. ⟨hal-03260206⟩