Trade, demand spillovers and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective

Alain Desdoigts (1) , Fernando Jaramillo (2)

1 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
2 Universidad del Rosario

Will the integration of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) into the global economy provide the biggest boost to the world economy since the industrial revolution? In this paper, we investigate international demand spillovers brought about by an emerging global middle class and their impact on the international structure of production. We put forth a many-industry and two-country trade model featuring international competition, non-homothetic preferences and country-specific asymmetries in income distribution, productivity and population size. Its key characteristic is the introduction of demand complementarities propagating increasing returns across industries and national boundaries, which eventually translate into a global profit-multiplier.

Mots clés: deindustrialization; world middle class; hierarchic preferences; Horizontal complementarities; trade

Domaines: Economies et finances

Alain Desdoigts, Fernando Jaramillo. Trade, demand spillovers and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective. 2007. ⟨halshs-00111186v2⟩